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Another screwed up double 5s

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: Another screwed up double 5s (KenB)

I agree with Neil that Blue should have cubed and that hitting is the right play due to White's stripped board. Indeed, I would specify that the key is the almost complete lack of spares (it is only aces that don't crack).

I think 18/8 17/12 11/6 is reasonable, and if you even back up a White spare from her 2pt to her 4pt (making White's 32 22 better from the roof (as well as her other 2-hits combined with a subsequent 2 or 3 in some sequences), then I would make that safe play -- and I'll bet the swing is quite large.

Based on your notes, I'm guessing you hit but chose either 11/6 or 13/8 for the fourth 5. In support of 18/13 (with which I agree), Neil said "cleans up a bit" and "we're cubing when missed anyhow" and Rich said "...guards against the hit [and] the 16/34 non-hitting rolls that leap out."

I would add that a a hidden value to making the midpoint is if Blue is hit, White's escape is that much tougher (i.e., it's not just a matter of the extra blot). Imagine, for example, White rolls the 52 perfecto followed by 62 61 66 33 or 42. Or she hits with 26 or 21 followed by 56/46 or by 51/41 followed by 62 61 66 33 42. When White is this stripped, any outfield point in direct range of the 7pt (and the midpoint certainly qualifies) is much more valuable than usual. That's why hitting coupled with 11/6 or 13/8 is "*so*" bad.

Nack

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