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BGonline.org Forums
Money Game 41
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Money Game 41 (Michael Depreli)
Date: Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 12:11 a.m.
16/11, 16/12 13/12, 12/7, 13/8, and 7/2x look to be the choices here. I really doubt hitting loose is right so scratch 7/2x off the list. 16/11 is the sort of default play in this sort of position but it might not be right here. Those 6 flies hurt you a lot in the race (you're only down 9 pips after this roll) and cut down on your hitting chances. You do get a triple shot on White's 61 and 62 but White might decide coming out gives you too many shots and just stay back on the 23 if he rolls one of these numbers. Your outfield checkers give you 6 ways to make the 8-point plus D5 is great which gives you a total of 7 excellent numbers.
Making the 12 point looks pretty good too. It leaves no blots which allows you to keep your racing equity even if White gets out and you do get direct shots on 8 of White's escaping 6s. OTOH, if White doesn't get a 6 you'll only have 3 excellent numbers next time (D5,D4,D2).
12/7 isn't bad. If White gets a 6, the checker on the 16 gives you a few extra ways to hit. If White hits with an ace, he mostly has to break the 10-point and give you (duped) 5s to send another checker back.
13/8 is the QF play. It might appear too big at first glance, but consider: If White fails to hit (16 #'s), you've got a huge redouble and it's not at all clear that White can even take; If White rolls an ace and hits(9 more #'s), you'll have 6s to hit back on the 15-point, 4s to cover the 8-point, and 5s to hit loose on your 2-point; If White gets a 6 (11 #'s) you're in pretty bad shape (escecially the dbl hitters of course). You lose a lot in the race and you will only have around 7 or so ways to enter and hit back.
I think 13/8 is best followed by 16/12 13/12. I guess the nactation for these two moves would be $ and P.
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