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BGonline.org Forums
Bad Sequences
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Bad Sequences (Steve Mellen)
Date: Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 7:09 p.m.
In the first position, I think D/T is correct. The 11 numbers that clear the 11-point are big mkt losers and, as you say, there aren't many g's for either side here so it should be easy to figure out whether or not to take a recube.
Re the recube, your 4-cube takepoint ATS is around 28% plus approx 80% of trailer's g chances with virtually no recube vig. How often can you win from here? Matt's got 18 hitters after which you're in terrible shape. I'll simplifly it a bit and say you never win after 4 of these (64,54)and give you 10% of the other 14 hits. If Matt fails to hit, you're still far from home since 13 of the non-hitters either dance or enter on the 22-point vs. just 5 that enter on the 20-point. I'll give your side 14.5 of these 18 games or 15.9 of the entire 36.
How many gammon losses for you? After one of his 18 immediate hitters, you'll frequently get 2 men closed out and then get g'd ~45% of the time (higher than the normal 40% because of your weak board and the added value of a gammon for the trailer ATS). Sometimes you'll anchor only to get trapped off the anchor and get closed out anyway or maybe you'll anchor but then roll something that forces you to blot from your 6-point and then get a 3rd man sent back. I'll guess you get g'd about 40% of your 16.6 losses from these immediate hit for 6.64 gammons. How about gammons after Matt misses this turn? Not very likely but certainly possible. Look at your 62 or D5 rolls, for example. Say he gets 0.5 more gammons from these 3.5 wins. This totals 7.14 gammons, a little less than 20%.
This raises your takepoint to around 44%, so the T/P decision is very close since 15.9/36 is almost exactly 44%. How to decide? Your recube vig? No, that's too small to matter. Your own slight gammon winning chances? I really doubt it since they're both unlikely nearly worthless to you ATS. How about Matt's slight bg chances? That could make a difference since he's probably got a 1% or so bg chance and bg's are much more valuable to him than normal ATS. So R/P looks right in the 2nd position.
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