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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 9:46 p.m.

In Response To: Endgame double 2's (Timothy Chow)

Gammons do matter here, enough to make the plays that bear 3 or 4 checkers rank 2nd and 3rd. But they do lose too many extra games. I haven't rolled out Stick's variation, but 5/3 4/off 2/off probably becomes a closer contender if not the best move when White has three checkers on the ace point. (In Stick's variation, clearing the 2-point with 2/off(4) looks like it just gives White the opportunity to split with an ace.)

gnubg	99
tchow	41
Position ID: t90ACDDe7gAAAA Match ID: QQkJAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	5/3(3) 2/off	+1.347
			0.952 0.435 0.026 - 0.048 0.000 0.000 +1.365 +1.347 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847066645 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	2/off(4)	+1.306 ( -0.042)
			0.911 0.456 0.063 - 0.089 0.000 0.000 +1.341 +1.306 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847066645 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	5/3 4/off 2/off	+1.290 ( -0.057)
			0.922 0.450 0.029 - 0.078 0.000 0.000 +1.324 +1.290 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847066645 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	4/off 2/off(2)	+1.232 ( -0.115)
			0.904 0.433 0.029 - 0.096 0.000 0.000 +1.269 +1.232 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847066645 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	5/3(3) 4/2	+1.228 ( -0.119)
			0.941 0.353 0.017 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 +1.253 +1.228 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 847066645 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Endgame double 2's
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 9:14 p.m.
  • Endgame double 2's
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 10:46 p.m.
  • Endgame double 2's
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 11:48 p.m.
  • Endgame double 2's
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 3:02 a.m.
  • Variant
    Stick -- Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 7:27 a.m.
    • Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 9:40 p.m.
      • Variant
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 12:48 a.m.
        • Variant
          Nack Ballard -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 1:47 a.m.
    • Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 1:44 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Stick -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 10:15 a.m.
  • Endgame double 2's
    Seth -- Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 1:44 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 27 January 2010, at 9:46 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Stick -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 5:19 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 9:10 p.m.