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XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 29 January 2010, at 7:08 p.m.

In Response To: XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed (Daniel Murphy)

Gregg: In Nack and Paul's Opening book they use the phrase 'tied' when two plays are within 0.010 of each other.

Let's say you have two plays that are 0.002 different, but you've done enough rollouts so this is a statistically significant result. Which is more accurate? (assuming you can't mention the exact interval):
1) 'Play A is better than Play B'.
2) 'The plays are tied'.

Daniel: More accurate? Since your hypothetical rollout has has found that one play is better than the other, the more accurate statement is that with X probability, in Rollout Y, with parameters, Z, Play A is better than Play B.

Nack: Excuse me for butting in here, but that wasn't either of the 1) or 2) choices that Gregg listed. Your elaboration of 1) makes 1) sound better, but he could just as easily elaborate on 2) to make 2) sound better. Then again, the problem may be the semantics of "more accurate."

I believe that "more meaningful" (or less misleading) is what Gregg means. If so, I agree that with a (stat-sig) rollout difference of .002, "The plays are tied" is more meaningful than "Play A is better than Play B." (That's not to say that one can't construct a longer sentence to be even more meaningful.)

Daniel: Then do with the result what you think it's worth, given that you may have little basis for accurately determining to what extent the bot has misplayed both sides, and the effect of that misplay on the rollout's result. If you are going to call two plays "tied" because after a most rigorous rollout they are within 0.010 of each other, it's not, it seems to me, because "tied" is a better description than "too close to call," but because you have defined "tied" as meaning "too close to call."

Nack: I think "defined" may be a bit strong, but basically you've hit the nail on the head. I believe that the point Gregg was trying to make is valid but that he misunderstood "TCTC" (just that, too close to call). When "tied" is used in the way many people do, to refer to a tight range around .000 (which Paul and I have formalized to being within .010 but for others it can depend upon context), for practical purposes we mean TCTC.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 January 2010, at 10:16 p.m.
  • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
    Andreas -- Sunday, 24 January 2010, at 8:33 a.m.
    • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 January 2010, at 9:11 a.m.
      • ty for the ATS link ! *NM*
        Andreas -- Sunday, 24 January 2010, at 1:02 p.m.
  • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
    Gregg Cattanach -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 8:57 p.m.
    • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 9:10 p.m.
    • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
      Stick -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 9:13 p.m.
    • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
      Stick -- Tuesday, 26 January 2010, at 9:39 p.m.
      • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
        Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 1:42 p.m.
        • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 28 January 2010, at 8:36 p.m.
          • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
            Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 1:30 p.m.
            • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
              Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 6:07 p.m.
              • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
                Nack Ballard -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 7:08 p.m.
                • XG 4 ply RO of 64P-62 completed
                  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 9:43 p.m.
    • "Tied" vs. "TCTC"
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 29 January 2010, at 10:30 p.m.