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Blue to play 5-4

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 29 January 2010, at 11:38 p.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 5-4 (Daniel Murphy)

Cracking the board can't be good, so it looks like a choice between 13/4 and 13/9 13/8.

13/4 leaves a direct shot, of course, but getting hit is not necessarily disastrous for Blue. If Blue dances a while then Blue at least avoids collapsing his board, whereas after 13/9 13/8, Blue has a high risk of crunching. And if Blue is not hit, then several numbers play awkwardly for White. 4-2 necessarily leaves a direct shot, and 4-1, 5-1, 6-1, 5-2, 6-2, 5-4, and 6-4 seem to play worse for White after 13/4 than after 13/9 13/8.

On the other hand, if White does roll a 3 (or 1-1 or 2-1) then Blue certainly is better off having played 13/9 13/8. In most cases he will at least get some indirect shots at White's outfield blots, which he will obviously not get if he is on the bar.

Overall, I think Blue probably wins more games by playing 13/4. Now what about gammons and cube vig? Blue will certainly lose more gammons by playing 13/4. On the other hand I think Blue is more likely to get in an efficient recube after 13/4.

It's a difficult decision but overall I like Blue's chances better after 13/4 so that is my play.

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