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BGonline.org Forums
tricky 53
Posted By: Stick In Response To: tricky 53 (TheProdigy)
Date: Saturday, 30 January 2010, at 10:20 a.m.
I wish you hadn't entitled it 'tricky 53' then I wouldn't have to talk myself out of my OtB play so hard. Most likely I'd have played 8/3* 8/5. While on rare occasions the tricky play, 8/3* 6/3, will be correct, it's often plain wrong and when it's right it's only right by a wiggle so I play it safe and make the standard play. I discard 13/5 immediately as it isn't trying to win, it's playing not to lose. Any other hit aside from those two is too rich or too stacky.
8/3* 8/5 leaves [11 22 55 21 31 61 32 42 52 62 43 64] as immediate covers, 20 numbers. (31 making the 2pt I'm counting as a cover) Of the remaining 15 numbers 66 is also a keeper rounding it out to 21 good numbers when our opponent dances or comes in on the 2pt. This play leaves two blots floating.
8/3* 6/3 leaves [11 22 44 21 31 41 61 32 42 52 62 43 54 64] as immediate covers, 25 numbers, 5 more than the standard play. Of course 66 in this scenario also wouldn't be thrown back and in general the number that don't cover safety the blot on the 6pt by picking it up. This is a mixed back, it's nice you can pick it up when you can't cover but it sucks because now you're stuck with the open 6pt and not much hope of remaking it. This play leaves three blots floating. This play also has the bonus of twice as many cover and hop numbers, 62 64 for the tricky play and only 62 for the standard play.
Each play leaves 13 immediate hitters while only the tricky play leaves an immediate double hitter, 62. With the tricky play you also may be able to remake a point as part of the prime as there's already a checker slotting that point too. (the 8pt)
I'm not good enough to know how the pluses and minuses listed trade off to make which play correct so even in spite of your title I'll stick with my original play, 8/5 8/3*.
Stick
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