-2, -1 PC
Wow, actually I'm working on free drops right now as I'm preparing WSOB shootout.
I have read Bart Brooks & Ray Fogerlund's "Match Dillenma". This book is good but their rollout is done by Snowie 4 , so some of the close desicion I rollout by XG again.
I would like to know what is the right "opening" play for trailer. His goal is get the free drop with least risk, but some of the rolls are interesting. For example, opening 64 has 3 different choices and few hours rollout couldnt decide what is the best play.
A) 21S - 65R - ?
51S-65R is 1.030 pass so it should be pass.
B) 21S - 53P - ?
I haven't rolled it out yet, but as C) is close decision I mention below, so it must be pass.
C) 21S - 42P - ?
This is 0.997 take, but confidence interval is too big. Hope someone will extend the rollout.
D) 21S - 64P - ?
It seems clear take to me. He is on the bar against two point board with 9 pip trailing.
E) 21S - 55P - ?
I would play 55A(8/3(2)* 6/1(2)*) but either play DT.
My setting for rollout is below here. I'm not sure what is the standard depth of truncation here though.
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:-1:00:2:1:0:3:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2 Score is X:2 O:1 3 pt(s) match. +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ | X O O | | O X | | X O | | O X | | X O | | O | | X | | O | | X | | O | | |BAR| | | | | | | O | | X | | O | | X | | O X | | X X | | O X | | X X O O | +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ Pipcount X: 161 O: 164 X-O: 2-1/3 Cube : 1 O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout No Double Player Winning Chances: 49.87% (G: 13.41% B: 0.65%) Opponent Winning Chances: 50.13% (G: 14.62% B: 0.70%) Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 49.92% (G: 13.86% B: 0.75%) Opponent Winning Chances: 50.08% (G: 14.79% B: 0.80%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.266, Double=+0.997
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0.915 (-0.082)
Double/Take: +0.997
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.003)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout Truncated at 11 moves using 5 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1340 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.912Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 91.9%
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: GnuBG 11 point