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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Mon. May 28th
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: OLM Mon. May 28th (Stick)
Date: Monday, 28 May 2007, at 5:33 p.m.
Double.
No double: Blue cashes on the next roll if he doesn't get hit or White doesn't throw big doubles or something. Blue leaves an indirect on 63 62 61 (6 rolls), and gets hit about 5.5%, so 1/3 of a hit in those 6 games. He leaves a direct on 65 54 53 52 51 41 31 (14 rolls), so ~4 hits in those 14. He leaves a double shot on 64, so let's say one hit in those 2 games. So let's round the 1/3 up to 1/2, for a total of 5.5 hits in 22 games. If Blue doesn't get hit, he cashes on most of the exchanges of these 2 games, and also whenever he throws doubles (28 games). Let's say he wins 95% of the 22.5/28 games where he doesn't get hit. That's 21 points out of 22.5 games. When he does get hit, let's say he wins 15%, or 1 more game out of those 5.5, since he can immediately hit back on the ace and he has cube access. So that's about 22 wins out of 28 games, and White wins the other 6.
The remaining 8 games where Blue plays inside (43 42 32 21) is pretty bad both for future blottage and the race. Let's say White is somewhere around 35-40% here. Then White gets about 3 and Blue gets about 5 wins. So White wins about 9 games and Blue wins 27, so not doubling wins ~36/36 with the cube on 2.
Double: Blue needs to win 36/36 with the cube on 4 to break even, so that's 22.5 wins and 13.5 losses. Does Blue give up 4.5 wins by doubling? That seems hard to believe. White is a little better in the variations where he hits, since he can cash if Blue dances, but Blue still has the immediate ace shot. Let's say Blue only wins 0.5 instead of 1 game there. In the racing variations, White is about 90% instead of 95%, so give White an extra game there. In the remaining 8 games where Blue plays inside, he'd need to win 3 extra games by holding the cube. That's clearly unreasonable. Hence, double.
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