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BGonline.org Forums
Blue to play 5-4
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Blue to play 5-4 (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 5:47 a.m.
I'm not going to assume QF is being applied here (Daniel is too sly to be predictable), but I'm going with 6/1 5/1 anyway -- a move that has not even been mentioned as an option yet, at least not specifically.
The first point is that breaking the midpoint gives White a huge gift either way; if 13/9 13/8, White pretty much walks home, and if 13/4 then White has 14 hitting 3s -- and she won't volunteer a blot on non-3s (otherwise keeping the board with 13/4 does look right).
Blue has an efficient (if not cute) way to break the board -- 6/1 5/1 -- otherwise I might not. With many rolls, White is about to leave a shot on Blue's 10pt (or 11pt or 12pt or 16pt) and in most of those cases, when Blue hits, he automatically brings down a builder that can hit and "bounce," thereby covering the 6pt or 5pt with the same roll. For example, say White rolls 53 played 13/7, and Blue rolls 34 or 35 hitting and making a five-point board, all the with the same midpoint checker.
After Blue plays 6/1 5/1, White can elect not to break her 15pt, but then Blue has achieved a victory because some of White's rolls that contain a 3 would have hit. Blue can even make a five-point board on the next roll with a 3 or 1, keeping the midpoint for yet another roll.
The other decent board-breaker 8/3 5/1 does better in the variations where White does not leave a shot in Blue's outer board, but IMO White has reached critical mass and Blue should focus more on the effect of shots that might come this roll. For example, after Blue breaks his board (either way), I'm pretty sure White should volunteer a shot with 63 or 52 rather than "safely" break her 8pt or 7pt.
Obviously, after 13/4, Blue has a better position if White doesn't roll a 3, but I don't think that makes up for the loss suffered when White does roll a 3.
Nack
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