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Santa Fe Update

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 1:32 p.m.

In Response To: Santa Fe Update (Bill Riles)

This is interesting. If Neil passes he is at 2-away 7-away for 16%. A 2-roll position is worth about 14%. So the 2-roll position loses the market (somewhat, not by a mile), but the market is still very much alive even in a 3-roll position (21%). Can Neil make up 5% from 2-away 7-away? I doubt it. So he probably has to take the 3-roll position.

What about doubling point? If you hold off and win you are at the aforementioned 86%, if you cube and win you are at 100% (gain = 14%). If you hold off and lose you are at 6-away 3-away (which works out to about 26%), if you cube and lose you are at 0% (risk = 26%). So risk/(risk+gain) = 26/40 = 52/80 = 65/100. So 65% is where your window opens and a 5-roll position is worth around 72% so you are currently a bit into the window but not near your cashpoint.

OTOH you could roll a set which is the only real reason that this can become a cube. Set/miss (5/36) is an enormous market loss and most other sequences are close to cubes. On the other hand miss/set (5/36) is quite bad.

I think in your position I would wait and make Neil make a tough decision (and probably a take) in a 3-roll position but I could see recubing maybe being correct. I would guess neither the 5-roll position is technically a recube, though it is probably pretty close.

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