[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Dinner With Kit

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: Dinner With Kit (christian munk-christensen)

I only play on after 31 and a split by the opponent which doesn't happen all that often.

I'm not sure if you're talking about all splits or just 6x splits or minor/major splits. Matters only on the frequency of such things happening.

A couple examples are listed below for those who may want to rethink their auto cubing policy because of such *small* errors. Most of the 31P-XX cubes are too good by roughly .03-.04.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 162
3 point match
pip: 161
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.64% (G: 18.03% B: 1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.36% (G: 12.51% B: 0.92%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.58% (G: 22.31% B: 3.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.42% (G: 13.50% B: 1.63%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.474
Double:+1.223
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.034
Double/Take:+1.223 (+0.189)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.034)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+1.025...+1.042)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.206...+1.240)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 158
3 point match
pip: 163
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-a---BDaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 57.10% (G: 19.85% B: 1.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.90% (G: 11.17% B: 0.80%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.97% (G: 24.47% B: 3.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.03% (G: 12.26% B: 1.81%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.539
Double:+1.319
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+1.068
Double/Take:+1.319 (+0.251)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (-0.068)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+1.057...+1.078)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.303...+1.335)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.