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Rollouts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 10:05 p.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Leonardo Jerkovic)

if we play this game without cube, obviously 13-5 is better move

Actually, if you do these three Gnubg 2-ply rollouts and look at the cubeless and "cubeless" numbers:

(1) truncated at depth 10, cubeless
(2) truncated at depth 10, cubeful
(3) full, cubeful

the three rollouts agree that 8/5 8/3* is better than 13/5, both cubeless and "cubeless." The result of "TheProdigy"'s cubeless, truncated at depth 11 rollout was different; this is another example of Gnubg getting a better result from a truncated rollout when plies+depth= an even number, not odd.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 6, Blue 2 (match to 11 points)

Move number 4: Blue to play 53

White	99
Blue	127
Position ID: 3G1jAAhjmxkBGA Match ID: UYluAWAAEAAA

• Blue moves 8/5 8/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 8/3*	-0.4915
			0.3264 0.0574 0.0007 - 0.6736 0.2181 0.0112 -0.4915 0.0025 0.0019 0.0002 - 0.0025 0.0036 0.0009 0.0058
			Truncated cubeless rollout (depth 10) (trunc. at exact bearoff) with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843892458 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune
	2	R	13/5	-0.5169 ( -0.0254)
			0.2799 0.0389 0.0007 - 0.7201 0.1274 0.0051 -0.5169 0.0026 0.0015 0.0001 - 0.0026 0.0038 0.0006 0.0058
			Truncated cubeless rollout (depth 10) (trunc. at exact bearoff) with var.redn.
			180 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843892458 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeless prune
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 8/3*	-0.2500
			0.3271 0.0591 0.0011 - 0.6729 0.2274 0.0130 -0.4700 -0.2500 0.0023 0.0020 0.0001 - 0.0023 0.0043 0.0010 0.0075 0.0087
			Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
			212 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843892458 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/5	-0.3373 ( -0.0873)
			0.2790 0.0398 0.0008 - 0.7210 0.1364 0.0059 -0.5006 -0.3373 0.0020 0.0012 0.0001 - 0.0020 0.0032 0.0006 0.0054 0.0071
			Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
			212 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843892458 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 8/3*	-0.3008
			0.3144 0.0507 0.0013 - 0.6856 0.2336 0.0160 -0.5016 -0.3008 0.0025 0.0015 0.0002 - 0.0025 0.0043 0.0029 0.0064 0.0092
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			461 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843870515 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/3* 6/3	-0.3225 ( -0.0217)
			0.3213 0.0483 0.0008 - 0.6787 0.2461 0.0157 -0.5078 -0.3225 0.0027 0.0015 0.0001 - 0.0027 0.0036 0.0017 0.0069 0.0112
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			459 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843870515 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/5	-0.3539 ( -0.0531)
			0.2707 0.0386 0.0011 - 0.7293 0.1416 0.0092 -0.5153 -0.3539 0.0023 0.0016 0.0002 - 0.0023 0.0041 0.0025 0.0058 0.0086
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			455 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843870515 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	10/7 8/3*	-0.3576 ( -0.0568)
			0.3259 0.0529 0.0006 - 0.6741 0.3210 0.0316 -0.5630 -0.3576 0.0031 0.0019 0.0003 - 0.0031 0.0056 0.0030 0.0090 0.0134
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			403 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843870515 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/10 8/3*	-0.3878 ( -0.0870)
			0.2898 0.0455 0.0003 - 0.7102 0.2426 0.0146 -0.5696 -0.3878 0.0026 0.0018 0.0008 - 0.0026 0.0042 0.0014 0.0073 0.0105
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			402 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843870515 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Rollouts
  TheProdigy -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 2:21 a.m.
    • Rollouts
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 10:12 a.m.
      • Rollouts
        TheProdigy -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
      • Rollouts
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
    • Rollouts
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 1:09 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Sunday, 31 January 2010, at 9:57 a.m.
  • Rollouts
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 5:49 p.m.