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Score Based Cube Action?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 1:12 a.m.

In Response To: Score Based Cube Action? (Stick)

TG and not good enough/Take if doubled looks right to me. You've got 8 numbers that leave a double shot, 16 that clear, and the other 12 do neither. If you leave a dbl shot and it gets hit, you'll still have a fine chance to win since you'll be favored to come in before Black covers. If Black misses the dbl shot or if you roll one of the other 28 #'s, he will have to abandon one of his anchors or weaken his board. I would give Black 3 wins out of the 4.4/36 where he hits the dbl shot right away. He needs 25% to take ATS, so the question is whether or not he can win 6 out of the other 31.6 games. Black mainly has a better than normal 3-pt game in these variations (because of White's hole on the 4-pt) and I think that will produce the required 19% wins to take this cube.

Should White double? ATS, the centered-cube gammon price for the leader is 1.0 which implies he should play for an undoubled g a lot more often than at most scores. I think his gammon wins are slightly less than Black's wins but every roll is a cube decision so the fact that he can double at some future point in the game should be enough to make taking a roll a profitable decision ATS.

2 other reasons not to double: 1) If it goes D/T, Black can go all out for the win, not caring about your g chances. If you don't double, his checker play is more difficult since g's will be real important and there's a good chance Black will either play too aggressively for the win or too conservatively to avoid the gammon. 2) If D/T now, Black will auto recube and won't make any cube errors for the rest of the game. If you don't cube, Black could easily make an incorrect cube decision at some point in this game -- maybe he'd double when he gets a shot figuring he might be gammoned for the match if he misses, or maybe he'll incorrectly take or pass when you double him some time down the road.

Could be wrong but take a roll & take if doubled looks correct to me.

Messages In This Thread

• Score Based Cube Action?
  Stick -- Tuesday, 2 February 2010, at 10:40 p.m.
  • Score Based Cube Action?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 1:12 a.m.
  • Score Based Cube Action?
    David -- Wednesday, 3 February 2010, at 2:00 a.m.
  • Score Based Cube Action?
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:50 a.m.
    • Score Based Cube Action?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:55 a.m.
      • Score Based Cube Action?
        David -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
        • Score Based Cube Action?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:16 p.m.
          • Score Based Cube Action?
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 5:22 p.m.