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BGonline.org Forums
Score Based Cube Action?
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Score Based Cube Action? (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 3:50 a.m.
Not all contact positions at 2-away 3-away are no doubles (on the sometimes-espoused logic that one is always not good enough and/or too good).
I feel good about doubling for Yellow, and I would hate being doubled if I were Brown, because I have no idea if I have the 25.2%(?) winning chances needed to take. And I don't think it's one of those positions where even though Brown should pass Yellow shouldn't double. As Brown, I'm praying for no double.
The main problem about a too good claim is that Yellow just doesn't win enough gammons; I'm pretty sure it's less than one in five; I'd estimate about one in six.
As for overall winning chances, they're pretty strong but not overpowering: 8 numbers (63 64 42 32) leave an immediate double shot, 20 numbers hit, and say Brown wins 3 out of 4 of those with the blotted 1pt; that's around 9% losses off the top. On 12 numbers (54 53 43 41 31 44 33) you leave a repeat situation, though not as bad because Brown will break an anchor (or weaken his board); still that's most of another 20/36 times 9%, call it 4+%; we're up to 13+%. Similarly, the third roll 7pt-clearage-situation will get almost 2% and the fourth roll a chunk of 1%. Say we're close to 16%. Can Brown win another 9+% between "bareoff" shots from the 22pt (with the 21pt open) and a touch of race vig (when Yellow stalls and Brown rolls big)? I'm guessing not, but it looks close.
IMO, Clear double, small pass.
Nack
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