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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 3 December 2006, at 1:44 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. Nov. 30th Play Decision (Stick)

I'm surprised 6/2 is correct by such a huge margin. I agree it's too much to leave me a shot here when you have a solid position/racing lead and enough rolls that you may find a way to make the 5 pt. naturally down the road, but by .172!? My board is decent and if you are hit it is serious trouble so ... there you have it.


Match to 25, Blue leads 2 to 0
142
127
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/2 0.659
0.2% 3.4% 70.8% 29.2% 2.0% 0.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.728
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.430 ±0.009, - live cube: 0.728 ±0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 41286 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/5 6/5 0.487 (-0.172)
0.3% 6.7% 64.5% 35.5% 5.9% 0.2%
Live cube rollout: 0.516
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.299 ±0.012, - live cube: 0.516 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 33391 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.

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