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Stick?? Does the emperor have clothes?

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 8:24 p.m.

In Response To: Stick?? Does the emperor have clothes? (Chuck Bower)

The counterintuitive realization here is that you have roughly equal chances of being up against AK whether your hand is KK or QQ. (53% in the former case, 57% in the latter.) Obviously you are much much happier to hold KK in those situations!

Of course, if someone's game is so predictable that you know they'll only put in the third raise with AA, KK, or AK (people reraise with AK but not QQ? Really?) then you probably shouldn't be losing to that person in the long run under any circumstances. Harrington's rule of thumb is that there's always at least a 10% chance your opponent is bluffing (in this case, it would mean he's making a move with something like 88) and against an unknown player that most certainly holds true.

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