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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: O'Hagan v. Bishop - NM Finals - Cube Game #1 (Stick)

Another one of those positions where simplifying as the taker what's the most likely route to victory? Can't attack, can't prime, race is roughly even but there's the huge problem of having to extricate your back checkers to take advantage of this race. I thought this was a clear pass. (would have guessed at least .06 error pre rollout)

	is Dorn Bishop score: 0 pip: 144 11 point match pip: 143 score: 0 is John O'Hagan
XGID=-aa--BDBB---cC---cbcB---b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	71.21% (G: 22.90% B: 0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.79% (G: 5.39% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.17% (G: 24.60% B: 0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.83% (G: 5.59% B: 0.23%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.609
Double:	+1.266
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.918 (-0.082)
Double/Take:	+1.041 (+0.041)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.014 (+0.904...+0.932)
Confidence Double:	± 0.022 (+1.020...+1.063)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 53 seconds

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