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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 9:25 p.m.

In Response To: O'Hagan v. Bishop - NM Finals - Cube Game #2 (Stick)

First the rollout for money which is known to be a close pass and following the AtS rollout.

gnubg	160
user	147
Position ID: 4HPkQUAzTvABMA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.6168
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0224	+0.0224
3.	No double	+0.7903	-0.2097
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6534 0.3778 0.0146 - 0.3466 0.0792 0.0034 +0.6168 +0.7903 Standard error 0.0006 0.0007 0.0002 - 0.0006 0.0005 0.0001 0.0015 0.0063 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.6646 0.3866 0.0142 - 0.3354 0.0764 0.0037 +1.2997 +1.0224 Standard error 0.0008 0.0011 0.0004 - 0.0008 0.0007 0.0002 0.0045 0.0066
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1043918976 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

	is Dorn Bishop score: 0 pip: 160 11 point match pip: 147 score: 2 is John O'Hagan
XGID=aB-B--CaA---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65.44% (G: 38.21% B: 1.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.56% (G: 8.24% B: 0.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.84% (G: 39.68% B: 1.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.16% (G: 8.15% B: 0.48%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.627
Double:	+1.309
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.770 (-0.150)
Double/Take:	+0.920
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.080)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.019 (+0.751...+0.789)
Confidence Double:	± 0.030 (+0.890...+0.950)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 12 seconds

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