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cube decision

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 5 February 2010, at 2:23 a.m.

In Response To: cube decision (DanielP)

I'm a bit less optimistic about Brown's winning chances than John is; I would have said around 20%. Therefore, I think holding off on the cube is very reasonable. I actually think Yellow gammon chances are pretty good here (perhaps even higher than Brown's winning chances); she should hold the 17pt against Browns's midpoint, go after her prime, and even if Brown hits a lucky fly shot she might pick up a third checker in those variations, given the 6pt blot sitting there.

If I had to guess, I'd say your position at this score is a close theoretical cash, but OTB I wouldn't double. In my experience, most people pass ugly positions even when they've worked their way back into a take, so I can get my cash ofttimes anyway when I shouldn't, thereby gaining equity from Opp's pass error in the process.

If I thought there was an outside chance Brown would actually take, I'd send it over, but that's hard for me to imagine.

In short, I would hold off doubling this position, even though I acknowledge it might be a technical cash.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• cube decision
  DanielP -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 11:59 a.m.
  • cube decision
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 4:06 p.m.
  • cube decision
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 4 February 2010, at 7:57 p.m.
  • cube decision
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 2:23 a.m.
    • OTB what actually happened
      DanielP -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:22 a.m.