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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 3 December 2006, at 1:50 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Friday Dec. 1st - Cube Action? (Stick)

This barrrrrrrrely squeezes into doubling range. What's funny is it bareeeely squeezes into the take range too! You do have an enormous racing lead and a fine distribution giving you plenty of time to clear the midpoint but the gap on your 5 pt. and my racing chances still give me enough for a take. You may never make the 5 pt. and most of my equity comes from hitting a shot. If I do get a shot and hit it it'll be a winning shot so no worries for me there.


Match to 25, Blue leads 2 to 0
Blue on roll. Cube Action?
131
112
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.541
0.0% 3.0% 76.2% 23.8% 1.4% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.541 ±0.006, - live cube no double: 0.935 ±0.013, - live cube double take: 0.940 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 101733 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0.908
2. No double 0.893 (-0.015)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.092)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.940
2. No double 0.935 (-0.005)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.060)
Proper cube action: Double, take

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