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Commentary #1

Posted By: Marty Storer
Date: Tuesday, 29 May 2007, at 3:21 p.m.

In Response To: Commentary #1 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I'm also surprised that 20/15 is so far behind 20/16 3/2, given that 66 is so gammonacious after the latter. I couldn't justify 20/15 because of the big negative swing on 65. I thought it would be close. The rollout makes me willing to believe it's not "close" but I expect it should be closer.

Food for thought: I've observed that even when humans get the right play OTB as I did here, similar-themed alternatives tend to be overvalued--maybe especially by this human but also seemingly by most others.

Having ranked 8/3 behind 20/16 3/2, I couldn't justify 20/15 because the negative swing on 65 looked so much bigger than the advantage gained by coming closer to home and avoiding the sillier dilly builder (on 2pt vs 3pt). But the lack of visual appeal of 8/3, and the fact that the theme of 20/15 is similar to that of 20/16 3/2, confounded my rankings.

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