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Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 5 February 2010, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: Do I set up 55? What could be more simple? (neilkaz)

For a 4 checker position vs itself win chances are in low 70% giving a value of about 5% per pip gained. Pips gined when the race is near 50% are worth more and also your position is worse than an even race but not on turn. So I will guess close to 4% and maybe down to 3% Playing 6 to 5 wastes a pip on 10 rolls (slightly more than 1/4) so I will guess the extra wastage will cost you close to 1%.

The setting up 55 gains you 1/36 times the % of time that black bears off in exactly 2. How often is black off in exactly 2? After 65,64,63,62 (8 rolls) is almost 3/4 chance, Up to 6 games. After 22, 33, 44, 55 virtually off next turn. Up to 10 games. After 11 decent chance up to 10.3 games. After 22 other rolls probably need 22 or better. About 3 more games. Up to about 13 overall. 1/36 times a value a little more than a 3rd gives about 1% games gained by setting up the 55 roll. Close enough that it might be right at DMP, but playing to win on 2nd (or 3rd turn) will make the cube access more valuable.

So in summary I don't know.

Messages In This Thread

• Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
  neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Stick -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:37 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:03 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:49 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 4:02 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
        • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:39 a.m.
          • Postscript
            Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:20 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:49 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 9:36 a.m.
  • OTB etc
    neilkaz -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:56 p.m.