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Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:49 p.m.

In Response To: Do I set up 55? What could be more simple? (neilkaz)

By my calculations, Black gets off in 2 rolls only 508 times out of 1296. Since you are a fairly big favorite to get 2 more rolls, OTB I would make the play that caters to that scenario rather than playing for one roll, although I suspect it's pretty close.

But then I sat down with pen and paper and calculated that the 6542 formation gets off in two rolls 238 times out of 1296, and the 5543 formation gets off in two rolls 223 times out of 1296. That's not much of a difference! Seems clear to me that a play which gives up 36 wins (out of 1296) on the first shake in order to gain 15 wins (out of 1296) on the second shake, assuming you even get a second shake, must be wrong. So play for 55.

Maybe the key insight here is that you are a really big dog to get off in two rolls no matter what you play, so catering to the two-roll scenario is nothing to get excited about.

Messages In This Thread

• Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
  neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Stick -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:37 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:03 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:49 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 4:02 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
        • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:39 a.m.
          • Postscript
            Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:20 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:49 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 9:36 a.m.
  • OTB etc
    neilkaz -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:56 p.m.