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The blitz didn't quite work. Now what?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:43 p.m.

In Response To: The blitz didn't quite work. Now what? (Timothy Chow)

Blue has two objectives here that to some extent are in conflict. One is to bring the position home safely (being up 30 pips), and the other is to press his board advantage (five points to three).

I think that pressing the board advantage takes priority here, simply because the difference in board strength is so large. To that end, bar/20 4/1 is too passive. If White simply strengthens her position with 65 64 62 51 42 41 (covering the 7pt) or 54 43 55 (making her 3pt) -- that's about half her numbers, then what? It's a little pathetic to have only 8s and 55 to hit. Add a direct shot to that (which also means pick and pass is an option, or if the other checker is hit then combos that enter and hit back on the 5pt becomes possible) and you've got some real oomph in your position -- you'll win more and gammon more from there. (And btw there's an additional little problem: If White hits loose with say 63 61, then Blue's 51 hits back but breaks the board due to loss of 4pt spare.)

OTOH, Bar/20 13/10 gives White too many additional hitting numbers, namely 5s. Because of that, I'm not sure Bar/20 4/1 is any worse.

But you don't have to play either of those two moves. Bar/22 13/8 achieves exactly what you need: it generates a direct threat on the 5pt blot but without giving White extra good numbers -- she basically has only good 5s, 4s and 3s instead of good 5s, 4s, 3s and 1s. Duplication does matter, since there's not much else going on to compare bar/22 13/8 with Bar/20 13/8.

Being in a slightly better position to escape has to take a back seat here because of the immediate tactics that Blue is so highly motivated to generate. Bar/22 13/8 surely must win more than bar/20 13/10 (which bails White out of the soup more often), and I believe it both wins and gammons more than Bar/20 4/1, and its not even clear to me that it loses more gammons (shouldn't be substantial in either case).

Nack

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