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BGonline.org Forums
61P-54D-32 at GS
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: I suck at GS..a play and a XG question (neilkaz)
Date: Sunday, 7 February 2010, at 12:35 a.m.
Well, I'll start with what I know about the second roll position 54D-32. As I recall it's Gnu [D S6] at GS (with plays like o, $ and Z being 15 or 20 back on Snowie), and something like [D S3 $20 Z22 o24] for money -- that's from memory, don't quote me.
This position differs in that Yellow has played 61P already. That makes D (Down 13/11 13/10) significantly worse because the midpoint is already reduced to four checkers -- playing two down now strips it. So, I think S must easily overcome D here.
Conversely, the reduced midpoint improves U (Up, 24/22 24/21) considerably, but since it wasn't even on the second roll Snowie-meter at GS, I'm going to guess that the 61P difference is not great enough for U to overtake S.
Since, according to what I wrote in the first paragraph, Z (reverse split 24/22 13/10) is .015+ worse than S in the second roll position, I'll assume that it's still about that much worse in the third roll position. Likewise, I see no reason for $ (Slot, 13/10 6/4) to improve, and o (outer, 13/11 8/5) is bogus anyway because it now breaks the 8pt.
So, having eliminated D, Z, U, $ and o in various ways, and P (4pt) doesn't make any sense to me at this score either, S wins by default.
Like Tim, I see no reason to deviate from the natural S play, and based on what I also know about (the second roll position) 54D-32 I'd be somewhat surprised if S isn't best here, even with U being a bit of a wild card.
S (Split, 24/21 13/11.)
Nack
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