[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OT: Obligatory Zeus question

Posted By: rory
Date: Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:17 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Obligatory Zeus question (neilkaz)

I agree with you 99%...at the 4-yard line I would not be too suprised if it was right to kick the field goal but I am pretty sure you are correct that it is still right to go for the TD.

At the Super Bowl party I was at the host said they should kick the FG...I did not hear one person aggree with him. Later in the 4th quarter when N.O. scored the TD to go up five he also said they should kick the extra point instead of going for two to try and give themselves a 7 point lead. Needless to say not the greatest idea of the night...but I am curious how statistically aweful it is. I called Chuck on my way home and asked him if he could put it through Zeus when he had the chance.

So with the with this senario...5:42 left in the game, just scoring a TD to go up five what percent GWC would the Saints have been giving up if they just kicked the extra point?

In the senario where they got for two and convert my guess is the Colts score to tie it about 70%. After the Colts score I am guessing the Saints go down and win with a FG/TD about 40% and the Colts win in regulation about 5% because of a TO or because they get the ball back on downs/punt. The balance is OT and and I give Colts a 55% edge because of the potential let down mind set of the Saints for not winning with the late seven point lead. This = Saints win 75.3%.

In the senarios where they got for two and fail and where they kick the extra point my guess is the Colts score to take the lead about 70%. After the Colts score I am guessing the Saints go down and win with a FG/TD about 40% and the Colts win in the last seconds about 5%. = Saints win 54.5%.

I will guess that the Saints convert the 2 point conversion 58%(How close is this?).

So (58% x 75.3%) + (42% x 54.5%) = 66.6%

66.6% - 54.5% = 12.1% GWC lost by not going for the 2-point conversion.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.