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Postscript

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:20 p.m.

In Response To: Do I set up 55? What could be more simple? (Nack Ballard)

As I was cleaning off my desk this morning I found my scrap paper from Friday and remembered this discussion. For the sake of closure I took the time to sort through the discrepancies.

As far as Black's chances with the 6222 position, we already noted the issue with 65 64 63 62. I had made an error by giving Black 35 chances to get off after an initial 22, when Nack is obviously correct that it should be 34. I also gave Black 5 chances to get off after an initial 31, where Nack's (4 or 5) is probably a more accurate statement. This means the correct answer is (505 or 507) which we should just call 506.

For the 6542 and 5543 positions (I panicked and thought I couldn't find these numbers for a moment, but aha! they are on the back of the page) I had made the rather prosaic error of failing to count the non-doublets twice. However, I did reclaim a smidgen of glory in that after a roll of 43 in the 5543 position, there are 6 ways to get off on the next shake rather than 4 because 65 also works. So the correct numbers for these two positions seem to be 350 and 326, respectively.

Whew! Now imagine trying to work all this out over the board.

Messages In This Thread

• Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
  neilkaz -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Stick -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 8:37 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:14 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Bob Koca -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 11:00 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:03 p.m.
  • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
    Steve Mellen -- Friday, 5 February 2010, at 10:49 p.m.
    • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 4:02 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:28 a.m.
        • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
          Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 5:39 a.m.
          • Postscript
            Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 6:20 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:49 p.m.
            • Postscript
              Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
      • Do I set up 55? What could be more simple?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 6 February 2010, at 9:36 a.m.
  • OTB etc
    neilkaz -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:56 p.m.