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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:11 p.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Steve Mellen)

When I was expecting child #1, we were told that we could have a medical test done to determine the gender of the child. If the test predicted a female, it would have been 60% reliable. I had a piece of equipment in my pocket which could predict a female with 50% reliability, so we saved the money on the medical test. But, if the medical test had predicted a male, it would have been 80% reliable. That's different. Having a prediction which is 80% reliable would have been worth something.

I believe a 100k rollout at Neil's settings with a .004 margin is worth something. And, it is consistent with tests previously performed. Neil's rollout is worth something even if it isn't 100% reliable. If it was .001, then we could use the coin I mentioned above to decide whether or not to believe the result. There's a big difference between .004 and .001 in long rollouts.

Furthermore, making the deuce point makes sense. Of course it sucks. But, it also sucks to be hit on the fourteen point. And, it sucks to get hit on the nine point. The big advantage of making the deuce point is that you never get hit on the next roll.

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