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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:40 p.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Timothy Chow)

I don't think it supports the conclusion in the slightest. If the rollout were .004 the other direction, would people really be saying, "Wait, hold everything, we have a piece of contrary evidence to consider"? If anything, the results here suggest that those who contend making the 2-point is a superior play have been overstating the case.

I am not opposed to the concept of opening-move rollouts, obviously, but I think some people tend to fetishize it to the point where they see a tiny rollout difference - from a bot which routinely makes serious evaluation errors, mind you! - and conclude that they've learned something about the "right" play. When your methodology is imprecise, you have to be careful about the precision of the conclusions you draw from it. That's all I'm saying.

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