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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Steve Mellen)

If the results were .004 in the other direction I can tell you that I would be saying "wait, hold everything" - yes I would.

A rollout such as this is very unlikely to have .004 of variability left in it due to insufficient sample size. If it is wrong, it is going to be wrong due to errors in play. Keep in mind that errors in play can go in either direction. Corrected errors in play could lead to this result being overturned. They could also increase the margin. Therefore, we can conclude that it is more likely than not correct. The larger the margin, the more likely it is that it is correct. Obviously we can not draw a line in the sand that delineates belief and doubt.

When you project motives onto people in the absence of any real knowledge about what they are trying to accomplish then your projections may be imprecise. And, you should be careful about the conclusions you are drawing about someone else's motivation.

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