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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Steve Mellen)

Steve Mellen wrote:

but here we see that 24/14 actually loses the least gammons.

As long as we're being cautious, let me point out that the most we can conclude from this rollout is that 24/14 loses the fewest cubeless gammons, not necessarily that it loses the fewest actual gammons.

Also, the XG rollout doesn't display the error bars on the (cubeless) gammon rates, so one has to be a little careful about the statistical significance. In this case, since the rollout was so long, it's probably not an issue.

But let me turn this around. When you say that 24/14 loses the fewest (cubeless) gammons, the difference in question is four-tenths of a percentage point, or 0.004, which a moment ago you were arguing is so small as to be in the noise. I sense a double standard here.

Just to be clear, by the way, I'm mostly on your side, because I think that people do tend to trust the bots too much. But it's all a matter of degree.

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