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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 2:50 a.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (David Rockwell)

Corrected errors in play could lead to this result being overturned. They could also increase the margin. Therefore, we can conclude that it is more likely than not correct.

That conclusion rests on an assumption that errors in play have not biased the result by an amount likely to be enough to reverse the rollout's best play. That's an assumption. It may be true. But simply asserting that it's true -- that the errors could be biased this way, or could be biased that way, and therefore probably don't matter -- seems like handwaving, not a logical argument.

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