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5-3 to play at DMP

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:22 a.m.

In Response To: 5-3 to play at DMP (Timothy Chow)

The choices appear to be 21/13, 13/8 24/21, 7/2 24/21, or 13/5. Running to the mid looks to be the worst choice so take it off the list. If you make the anchor with the 3, what's the right 5? 13/8 leaves 18 hits (White won't hit with 64) after which Blue hopes to either hit back or make a 2nd anchor. Being hit hurts Blue game quite a bit in this position. His racing chances take a big hit, he'll be a dog to return hit and his timing is questionable for a dual anchor game. Most of White's non-hitters play alright as well: 6s escape, 3s cover the 10, and other numbers make the bar. If White can't roll a 4 or higher on either die, the builder on your 8-point lets you PoH with 54 (D5 PoH from the mid anyway) and hit loose with other 5s. Seems like a lot of risk for not much gain.

Now look at 7/2 24/21. The builder on the 2 is poorly placed but you're not leaving any shots and the pip count's even. 7/2 is a little impure but I think it's a better overall play than 13/8.

13/5 is also possible. Making an advanced anchor is not always correct at DMP since reducing the oppt's gammon chances is irrelevant ATS. I think you get primed too often after this play and your timing for a low anchor game doesn't look so good.

So I'll try the conservative play: 7/2 24/21.

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