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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:22 a.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Daniel Murphy)

No, it does not rest upon that assumption.

Define the probability that errors in play lead to a cumulative effect of more than .004 as X where X is greater than zero and less than one. Assume that it is equally likely that this error manifests in either direction. Then the probability of the rollout leader being the correct play is 50% + ((1-X)/2) > 50%. Being greater than 50% is the definition of more likely than not.

The only assumption I have made is the that the error could go either way. This is just like my coin flip to determine the gender of my baby. If I blindly believe a rollout result, I have at least a 50% chance of being right. As the margin goes up, so does the probability that the rollout is correct.

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