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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:52 a.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (David Rockwell)

Note in my formula above, if the cumulative effect of errors in play is greater than .004 half of the time (and I think it is very unlikely to be this high) then the probability of the rollout leader being correct is 75%. To me, 75% is meaningful.

To put it in perspective, imagine you have a contact bearoff. You do a rollout of 4 ply 100k and find that your move is listed as a .004 error. Do you dismiss the rollout as inconclusive? Or do you try to figure out why your move was wrong?

Messages In This Thread

• More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
  neilkaz -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
  • I just can't bring myself to do it *NM*
    David -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 9:17 p.m.
    • I just can't bring myself to do it
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 9:35 p.m.
  • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
    Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 9:46 p.m.
    • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:42 p.m.
        • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
          Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 2:23 p.m.
      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:11 a.m.
        • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
          Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 9:37 a.m.
          • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
            Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 9:53 a.m.
    • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:14 p.m.
      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 10:40 p.m.
        • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
          David Rockwell -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:18 p.m.
          • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
            Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:46 p.m.
            • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
              David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:06 a.m.
              • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
                • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                  Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
                • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
                  • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                    Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:56 p.m.
                    • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 5:15 p.m.
                  • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                    Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 5:21 p.m.
                  • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 9:40 p.m.
          • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
            Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 2:50 a.m.
            • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
              David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:22 a.m.
              • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:52 a.m.
                • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                  Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 3:03 p.m.
              • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:56 a.m.
                • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                  Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:10 a.m.
                  • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:16 a.m.
                    • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                      Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:16 a.m.
                      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:34 a.m.
                      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 10:13 a.m.
                • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 9:14 p.m.
      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 8 February 2010, at 11:16 p.m.
        • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:17 a.m.
          • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
            Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:53 a.m.
            • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:12 p.m.
              • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
                Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
    • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
      • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
        Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 2:17 a.m.
        • More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 2:46 a.m.
  • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 4:58 a.m.
    • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
      Stick -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 5:02 a.m.
      • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 6:46 a.m.
        • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:19 p.m.
          • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
            Bob Glass -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
    • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
      Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 5:41 a.m.
      • Snowie-3, Snowie-4, Jellyfish, GNU and eXtreme rollouts all like 2pt with 64
        joe freedman -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 1:44 p.m.