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More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 9:37 a.m.

In Response To: More data to support making the 2 pt with opening 64 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I'd say 80%

The quoted reliability is conditioned on the prediction not the actual sex. Also I would say that this is the more relevant information, and also what a lay person would assume, so it is likely that this was also the intended meaning.

However, if the intended meaning was that the test is accurate 80% of the time when the child is male, and correct 60% of the time when the child is female, then the probability of actually having a boy, given that the test predicts a boy will be only 67%. Interestingly the probability of having a girl, given that the test predicts a girl rises to 75%, so even if the test is more accurate when the child is a boy, it actually is then more accurate when predicting a girl (because it yields fewer false positives for predicting girls)

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