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A play when in trouble

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 12:16 p.m.

In Response To: A play when in trouble (Neil Robins)





is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 105
7 point match
pip: 159
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBC-A---bA----bbbbbbD-:1:1:1:31:1:3:0:7:10
to play 31

1.Rollout113/10 3/2eq: -1.419
Player:
Opponent:
13.46% (G:0.28% B:0.03%)
86.54% (G:59.66% B:39.37%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-1.433...-1.405)
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout18/5 3/2eq: -1.431 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
13.16% (G:0.28% B:0.03%)
86.84% (G:60.12% B:38.47%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-1.445...-1.417)
Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout16/2eq: -1.447 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
11.74% (G:0.38% B:0.05%)
88.26% (G:58.30% B:34.89%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-1.461...-1.433)
Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout18/7 5/2eq: -1.452 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
13.23% (G:0.25% B:0.01%)
86.77% (G:61.92% B:42.98%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (-1.466...-1.438)
Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout14/1 3/2eq: -1.461 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
14.50% (G:0.38% B:0.05%)
85.50% (G:65.11% B:50.14%)
Conf: ± 0.020 (-1.481...-1.441)
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: eXtremeGammon

Any play that does not slot is wrong by a large margin. 13-10, 8-7 did not make the top 5 plays in the roll-out, it was -1.467. It was gammoned 54% and only won 8.9%. 13-10, 3-2 wins over 4.5% more and gets gammoned a little over 5.5% more, a nice trade at this score.

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