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Rollout for DMP and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 6:35 p.m.

In Response To: 5-3 to play at DMP (Timothy Chow)

The plays 24/21 13/8 and 24/21 7/2 are fairly close, but 24/21 13/8 comes out on top at DMP. However, the rankings are reversed for money. Evidently, 13/8 leads to a few too many gammon losses.

I only bothered to roll out three plays because the others didn't look they would even be in the ballpark.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, tchow 0 (match to 1 point, post-Crawford play)

gnubg	141
tchow	149
Position ID: sHOLAwhmW+AAMQ Match ID: cIkuAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/21 13/8	-0.291
			0.354 0.133 0.006 - 0.646 0.233 0.018 -0.291 -0.291 0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.007 0.002 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845051560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/21 7/2	-0.307 ( -0.016)
			0.346 0.108 0.003 - 0.654 0.161 0.008 -0.307 -0.307 0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.006 0.002 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845051560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	21/13	-0.319 ( -0.028)
			0.341 0.134 0.007 - 0.659 0.213 0.017 -0.319 -0.319 0.002 0.005 0.001 - 0.002 0.006 0.002 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845051560 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

And here's the rollout for money. It probably should be extended but I don't feel sufficiently motivated to do so.

gnubg	141
tchow	149
Position ID: sHOLAwhmW+AAMQ Match ID: cIkOAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/21 7/2	-0.540
			0.347 0.085 0.001 - 0.653 0.095 0.003 -0.318 -0.540 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869534653 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/21 13/8	-0.557 ( -0.017)
			0.350 0.097 0.002 - 0.650 0.125 0.006 -0.332 -0.557 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869534653 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	21/13	-0.587 ( -0.047)
			0.342 0.101 0.002 - 0.658 0.139 0.007 -0.358 -0.587 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869534653 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 5-3 to play at DMP
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 12:41 a.m.
  • 5-3 to play at DMP
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:22 a.m.
    • 5-3 to play at DMP
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:41 a.m.
    • 5-3 to play at DMP
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 3:45 a.m.
  • 5-3 to play at DMP
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 9 February 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
  • 5-3 to play at DMP
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 5:07 a.m.
  • Rollout for DMP and for money
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 6:35 p.m.