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Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 11:58 p.m.

In Response To: Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3? (Timothy Chow)

If Blue just makes the 5pt, White leads by 23 pips, and she leaves a shot only on 10 numbers (64 52 42 41 21), 4 of which (52 42) make a five-prime, and if Blue hits he may be forced to break his anchor. That's a very poor breakdown. As disjointed as Blue's position is without the 5pt, I think hitting is imperative.

Assuming Blue hits (13/12*), what is his best 3? Let's rank them by fewest shots:

12/9 leaves 15 numbers, 2 of which hit twice
24/21 leaves 16 numbers, 4 of which hit twice
6/3 leaves 17 numbers, 4 of which hit twice
13/10 leaves 19 numbers, 4 of which hit twice

There seems to be no good reason to leave extra shots with 6/3 or 13/10, so the sensible choice is between 12/9 and 24/21.

On the surface, 12/9 looks logical, as it dodges getting hit with 51 41 in exchange for being hit with 55 and 54 (which still leaves 2 and 4s to hit back), and bring over a builder for the 5pt or 4pt. Also, if Blue gets hit, he might roll an ace (or 32) to make a second anchor.

However, I believe the overriding priority is to get a third checker onto the 21pt. This gives Blue good 6s and 5s when White fails to hit and often even when she does hit; this could be a critical factor in Blue's ability to contain White's checker(s) (or to enter a good race with double 5s or 6s, either right away or after launching the third checker from the anchor). Due to his 6pt stack, Blue will happily use a 4 to cover his 2pt, but he doesn't have much of a use for most of his 5s and 6s if he's stuck back on the 24pt.

Supplementally, after 24/21 13/12*: (a) If White fans with 4 numbers, Blue will have 9+ extra numbers to hit the second checker, and (b) If White rolls 54 55, Blue will have a direct shot with his 21pt spare, instead of getting hit / pointed on (and if White rolls 42, Blue will be able to hit back with 61 62 63 without breaking the anchor).

13/12* 24/21.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 8:38 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 9:18 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    David -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 9:21 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 9:54 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Seth -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 10:24 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    rummer1973 -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 10:47 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 10:53 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 11:18 p.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 10 February 2010, at 11:58 p.m.
    • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 11 February 2010, at 2:42 a.m.
  • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 February 2010, at 6:16 p.m.
    • Do you hit? And if so, what's the 3?
      Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 11 February 2010, at 7:13 p.m.