| |
BGonline.org Forums
Tough DMP play
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Tough DMP play (Carlo Melzi)
Date: Thursday, 11 February 2010, at 1:36 a.m.
Hitting twice is the "no brainer" play because it obviously has the greatest chance to win a gammon while simultaneously minimizing the chance to lose a gammon.
The only score at which 11/5* 24/20 might conceivably be right is DMP, which this is. In truth, though, I wouldn't think hit-and-split even wins as often as hitting twice.
Blue is only one checker shy of being able to close his board with what he already has on his side of the board, and he'll often win without closing it. Blue should just hit and cover something, and repeat the process, and whenever there's a spare 4 or 6 later that does neither, he can split with it then. There will be time for splitting/running.
Too bad about the accidental/overkill gammons with the double hit, but it's a powerful enough game plan just for winning the game. Five-priming is a tempting plan for the score, but Blue gets hit too often on roll (including with 33 31 21 11) to sufficiently tempt me to leave the 5pt slotted.
11/5* 8/4 avoids the small-number hits but then several of Blue's numbers that would have made the five-prime on the next roll (63 53 43 32) now break the 8pt. Plus the dilly spare weakens his positions in other ways, most noticeably after he gets hit.
If Blue had one fewer checker in the zone -- if his 8pt or 6pt spare were on the midpoint or further back -- I think hitting only once would be better.
11/5*/1*.
Nack
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.