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42P-43: more data

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:07 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-43 update (neilkaz)

Below are two independent Snowie rollouts of 42P-43. The first (according to my records) was done by Stick about three years ago, and it is posted here at bgonline.org. The second rollout was done by Paul Weaver about seven years ago. There is no live cube, but you can still see how big the difference in margin is by comparing the primary output (Janowski, cube-adjusted) from both rollouts. I have three reasons for posting this pair of results: (1) This is my first time posting a Snowie position -- practice. (2) I'm presenting all the Snowie data for 42P-43 of which I'm aware. (3) This is a reminder of how much variance there still is in 5k or 10k trials (whatever bots may claim about the confidence interval). One result is [S D21] (or [S D26] live cube); the other result is [D S3] (i.e., a reversal -- the other play winning). By inference, you can imagine the unreliability of mere 2k- or 1k-trial rollouts of early game positions; sorry to sound like a broken record in that regard. Nack

Stick (Green) vs. Waste (White)

Money session. Score Green-White: 0-0

		Pip: 161
		Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

#	Ply	Move	Equity
1	R	24/20 13/10	-0.285
		Live cube rollout: -0.296
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.198 ±0.006, - live cube: -0.296 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 154388 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2	R	13/9 13/10	-0.305 (-0.021)
		Live cube rollout: -0.322
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.216 ±0.007, - live cube: -0.322 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 149578 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 6:15:24 PM, 2/12/2010(Export v2.10)

May03peevernack (Green) vs. (White)

Money session. Score Green-White: 0-0

		Pip: 161
		Game 1 Money session Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

#	Ply	Move	Equity
1	R	13/9 13/10	-0.294
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.208 ±0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 10727 games (equiv. 304851 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2	R	24/20 13/10	-0.297 (-0.003)
		95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.207 ±0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 10368 games (equiv. 310182 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 5:59:57 PM, 2/12/2010(Export v2.10)

Messages In This Thread

• 42P-43 update
  neilkaz -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 7:34 p.m.
  • 42P-43 At Match Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
    • 42P-43 At Match Scores
      Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
      • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
        jdg -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 2:17 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:53 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
          • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
            jdg -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 1:54 p.m.
    • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:36 p.m.
      • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
        Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
        • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
          David Rockwell -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
  • 42P-43: more data
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • 42P-43: more data
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-43: more data
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 2:13 a.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
          • 42P-43: more data
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
            • 42P-43: more data
              Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 8:47 p.m.
              • 42P-43: more data
                Nack Ballard -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 11:51 p.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:49 p.m.