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A quadruple or quintuple whopper

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:52 a.m.

In Response To: A quadruple or quintuple whopper (joe freedman)

We have, as you said, 20 immediate shots however these 20 shots don't give you a gin position. You'll still have two men trapped behind a 4 prime and depending on which two men that could be a real problem. The upside of this is that even though you have the ace point open and a spare buried deep always fearing the 61 or 11, the rest of the aces will crack your opponent's position. (assuming you are able to hit or break off the ace point so that 51 also cracks)

For the sake of argument let's say all 20 hitters win for you and all 16 misses lose. That makes you a 55.5% favorite in the game.

You mentioned there are 'many repeaters'. Let's say your opponent missed and we'll give him a slightly under average roll pipwise, a 42. (the average is 6.8) Now we have [66 55 65 64 63 62 54 53] that leave a shot. That's 14 shot numbers, some being worse than others. 65 and 66 are nightmares for example whereas 54 probably isn't the worst thing you've rolled that day. Part of the problem still lies in the fact that you may have men trapped behind this prime in this variation and you have even less time to spring them than the turn before and no coverage now on your opponent's 61 off the bar and he'll have less numbers that compromise his position from the bar. While the repeaters play some role I don't believe it's a big enough role to outweigh the generous 20/16 split I gave above.

Your opponent's 4 cube TP looks like this:

  • DP for -4 -5 or 42% ME
  • DTL for -2 -5 or 25% ME
  • DTW for -1 -6 or 89% ME

He'll be risking 17% to gain 47%. Not quite the cubeless 3-1 needed to take for money so his raw TP is just above 26%. I think we have more than enough information above to say this would be the biggest take in the world if cubed. We estimated our wins at 45% and our raw tp is 26% and our gammon losses are trivial and our opponent's gv on a 4 cube would be less than for money.

While it's true you'd be handing your opponent an essentially dead cube and crippling his gammon value I don't think any of this makes up for the fact that you just don't win often enough. ND/T.

Stick

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