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A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)

Posted By: joe freedman
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:34 a.m.

In Response To: A quadruple or quintuple whopper (Stick)

ND/T is right by almost .7, even though brown hits 20/36 + 16/36 * 249/1296 = .621, plus some residual shot equity. As Stick point out, brown still has much work to do. If brown cubes and misses, XG seems to say D/T for white, although it might be too good v.33 or 44. (haven't rolled that out)

is bulgari score: 1 pip: 125

7 point match

pip: 64 score: 2 is blotto

XGID=-baEEBBA-----a-----bbbbc--:1:-1:-1:00:2:1:0:7:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	54.63% (G: 6.80% B: 0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	45.37% (G: 14.61% B: 1.73%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56.32% (G: 7.88% B: 0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43.68% (G: 17.18% B: 3.24%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	-0.009
Redouble:	+0.257
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.308
Redouble/Take:	+0.187 (-0.121)
*Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.692)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1262 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.012 (+0.296...+0.320)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.017 (+0.170...+0.205)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: eXtremeGammon

Messages In This Thread

• A quadruple or quintuple whopper
  joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:08 a.m.
  • A quadruple or quintuple whopper
    Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:52 a.m.
    • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
      joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:34 a.m.
      • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
        Petter Bengtsson -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:49 a.m.
        • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
          joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:21 a.m.
      • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
        • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
          joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:32 a.m.
          • A quadruple or quintuple whopper (roll out)
            joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:33 a.m.
      • Side question about error total for cube actions
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 2:13 p.m.
        • Side question about error total for cube actions
          Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 3:10 p.m.
          • Side question about error total for cube actions
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 4:34 p.m.
        • Side question about error total for cube actions
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:11 p.m.
  • A quadruple or quintuple whopper
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:07 a.m.
  • A quadruple or quintuple whopper
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:52 a.m.
    • A quadruple or quintuple whopper
      joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
  • Prequel to a quadruple or quintuple whopper
    joe freedman -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:25 a.m.
    • Prequel to a quadruple or quintuple whopper
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:38 a.m.