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42P-43: more data

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:04 p.m.

In Response To: 42P-43: more data (Nack Ballard)

(3) This is a reminder of how much variance there still is in 5k or 10k trials (whatever bots may claim about the confidence interval).

I don't disagree with anything you wrote, Nack, but would point out that because of the confidence intervals, the disparate Snowie results shouldn't be too surprising. Snowie doesn't report the 95% confidence interval for the Janowskie-adjusted equities, but I think we can assume that they are about the same as the live cube equities. In which case, we have:

Play	1st rollout (Stick)	2nd rollout (Paul)
24/20 13/10	-0.285 ±0.014	-0.297
13/9 13/10	-0.305 ±0.014	-0.294

In other words, the equities found in Paul's rollout are within the 95% confidence intervals reported in Stick's rollout. Nothing out of the ordinary there. Stick's rollout said the equity of 24/20 13/10 is likely to be somewhere between -0.299 and -0.271. In Paul's rollout it was -0.297. Stick's rollout said the equity of 13/9 13/10 is likely to be somewhere between -0.319 and -0.291. In Paul's rollout it was -0.294.

The two rollouts are somewhat unusually different, however, if we look at the money cubeless equities:

Play	1st rollout (Stick)	2nd rollout (Paul)
24/20 13/10	-0.198 ±0.006	-0.207
13/9 13/10	-0.216 ±0.006	-0.208

The 95% confidence intervals in Stick's rollout were ±0.006, but the cubeless money equities in Paul's rollout differed a bit more than that, 0.008 and 0.009.

Messages In This Thread

• 42P-43 update
  neilkaz -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 7:34 p.m.
  • 42P-43 At Match Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Friday, 12 February 2010, at 10:31 p.m.
    • 42P-43 At Match Scores
      Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
      • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
        jdg -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 2:17 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:53 p.m.
        • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
          Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
          • Weaker vs. Stronger ~ GS vs. GG?
            jdg -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 1:54 p.m.
    • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:36 p.m.
      • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
        Stick -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
        • Are we sure weaker vs stronger matters here?
          David Rockwell -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
  • 42P-43: more data
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
    • 42P-43: more data
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 6:04 p.m.
      • 42P-43: more data
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 2:13 a.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
          • 42P-43: more data
            Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
            • 42P-43: more data
              Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 8:47 p.m.
              • 42P-43: more data
                Nack Ballard -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 11:51 p.m.
        • 42P-43: more data
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 February 2010, at 5:49 p.m.