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Dump of Blot?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2010, at 7:22 p.m.

In Response To: Dump of Blot? (jdg)

Stick's and Neil's observations are excellent.

I'll add a few of my own thoughts.

First, while the best play is surely 15/3 6/4, I think it's worth noting that the second best play is surely 15/11 8/4(2) 5/1. Compare that to 15/3 5/1, where Yellow has a much harder time with subsequent 3s and she has four checkers to bear in instead of only three.

In fact, I would guess that the second best play is better than the third best play by more than the best play is better than the second best play.

Secondly, to demonstrate how dangerous it is for Brown to hit after Yellow's best play, I don't even think she should hit with 31, which jars loose yet another blot(s). I think Brown should hit with other 3s -- after all he's desperate, but it's certainly no picnic (unless its double 3s).

Thirdly, if Brown misses, Yellow will leave a shot on 66 65 next turn no matter what he has played, and on no other rolls (unless he volunteers) except for 61, a hidden but only slight drawback of the "natural" play. Meanwhile, there's a nice upside on the 3s and 1s that would't otherwise have made the point (and even a distributional bonus on the nearly transposing 33 31 11).

Nack

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