[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

I didn't think this was that close

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:15 a.m.

In Response To: I didn't think this was that close (Bob Koca)

I certainly think the score makes a huge difference. Note that Steve can still expose a second blot and by recubing you kill gammons.

Recube, pass = 6-away 11-away = 5 x 5 + 50% = 75%
Take, lose = 6-away, 9-away = 5 2/3 x 3 = 17 + 50% = 67%
Take, win = 2-away 13-away = about 97%

Gain = 97 - 75 = 22, Risk = 75 - 67 = 8

Risk / risk + gain = 8 / 30 = 26.4/99 ~= 26.7%

26.7 is somewhat lower than I would have guessed offhand (somewhere in the low-mid 30s) So NRD when he fans, I guess, as there seems to be just about no market loss. But Neil should be well into the window here which opens closer to 0%. Not 100% sure if he should recube if he gets a shot but I guess probably yes.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.