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I thought this would be close

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:36 p.m.

In Response To: I thought this would be close (neilkaz)

It looks like a pass to me. The fact that there are only two checkers left on the midpoint makes a significant difference from the reference position posted by Bob Koca. Clearing the midpoint safely is often a market loser, particularly when there's a large race lead so that the trailer's equity comes mostly from shot equity rather than race equity. Here the leader has six non-doubles that clear the midpoint immediately.

The gaps on the 5-point and 9-point are liabilities but I doubt that they are enough to give Yellow a take. Black will happily dump checkers behind Yellow's anchor until he gets the rolls he needs. Again the race lead is important here because Black doesn't need to attack Yellow if Yellow tries to run off the anchor, so blots behind the anchor don't hurt Black much (other than because of wasted pips).

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