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4-roll 8-cube

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:58 p.m.

In Response To: 4-roll 8-cube (Seth)

Seth "In general, I know that 4 rolls is a take."

Neil replies, Good you're on the right track here, and doesn't this look lots like a 4 roll position to you? The only exception is that double 1's won't help White. However, double 2 won't help Blue, and double 1 may not always result in him ending up a roll ahead. All in all, I think White's chances to get off in 4 rolls are a bit better than Blue's and even though the loss of 11 as a winner each turn really hurts White, I think his winning chances are at least as good as a pure 4vs4 roll bearoff. ie..clear money take.

Seth "I, however, used Keith's method and came up with 24 vs 24 for adjusted pip count."

Neil replies, This is where your train derailed. I can let Tom clarify (noting with all due respect thatI use my own methods for bearoffs and don't even know his formula) but I don't think his method is intended to be optimal for roll vs roll bearoffs.

As for cubing at match score, well.. I agree with the others that this would result in a ride on the BK Express. (Personally I don't always mind that BK train ride, since I can usually sit next to Chuck and talk football).

Anyhow, at score if Blue just wins 4 pt, his ME is a bit over 78%, and if he recubes and his opp sends it back at 16 for the match, regardless of what is thrown on Blue's first turn, then Blue's ME is no better than the 74.5% he has in a 4 roll position. As we've seen since White can decide when he recubes, Blue's ME is likely clearly less than 74.5% if he cubes now.

There's simply too much difference between the two ME figures to make it correct to recube with a big lead. Blue should take a roll and reevaluate.

Messages In This Thread

• 4-roll 8-cube
  Ian Shaw -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 2:58 p.m.
  • 4-roll 8-cube
    Sam Pottle -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 3:26 p.m.
  • 4-roll 8-cube
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 4:03 p.m.
    • 4-roll 8-cube
      Bill Calton -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:22 p.m.
      • 4-roll 8-cube
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:51 p.m.
  • 4-roll 8-cube
    Seth -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 4:33 p.m.
    • 4-roll 8-cube
      neilkaz -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:07 p.m.
      • 4-roll 8-cube
        Seth -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:19 p.m.
        • 4-roll 8-cube
          John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
        • 4-roll 8-cube
          neilkaz -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:58 p.m.
          • 4-roll 8-cube
            Seth -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 9:31 p.m.
            • 4-roll 8-cube
              Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 9:45 p.m.
  • 4-roll 8-cube
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Dylan
      David -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:50 p.m.
      • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather *NM*
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:41 p.m.
        • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
          Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:09 p.m.
          • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
            • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:22 p.m.
              • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
                Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:33 p.m.
                • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
                • ...is old enough to be MCG's great grandfather
                  Carter Mattig -- Tuesday, 16 February 2010, at 2:48 a.m.
        • You should talk, gramps. *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 7:42 p.m.
          • But if I were MCG's grandfather, do you think I'd admit it? *NM*
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 8:51 p.m.
            • Hmmm....
              neilkaz -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 8:54 p.m.
  • 4-roll 8-cube
    Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:10 p.m.