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Thoughts OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 16 February 2010, at 1:24 a.m.

In Response To: I thought this would be close (neilkaz)

This type of setup is usually a bare take when the opp doesn't have his 5 pt. However, before clicking the take button it is good to look at the position. Steve has no buried checkers and will have quite a few rolls to either clear or make his 5 pt for some time. If he rolls badly he can dump behind me.

Another factor and the one that caused me to pass is that if he pays of with the builder creating 62 or 52 and I hit the shot my board isnt really ready. For my mind, that was enough to swing a bare take into a bare pass so I gave Steve his point.

	is STEAMSAX score: 0 pip: 124 13 point match pip: 147 score: 0 is neilkaz
XGID=----ABC-C-A-bC-c-cbe-B----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	76.53% (G: 3.00% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.47% (G: 1.51% B: 0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.35% (G: 2.80% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.65% (G: 1.50% B: 0.06%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.547
Double:	+1.149
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.946 (-0.054)
Double/Take:	+1.012 (+0.012)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.003 (+0.943...+0.949)
Confidence Double:	± 0.004 (+1.008...+1.017)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Messages In This Thread

• I thought this would be close
  neilkaz -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 3:55 a.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    David -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 4:43 a.m.
    • I thought this would be close
      Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 9:51 a.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:00 a.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:32 a.m.
    • I thought this would be close
      Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 9:46 a.m.
      • I thought this would be close
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 10:17 a.m.
    • I thought this would be close
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 1:27 p.m.
      • (intended as response to Stick's post below) *NM*
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 1:35 p.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    Stick -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 9:53 a.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 5:36 p.m.
  • I thought this would be close
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 6:53 p.m.
    • I thought this would be close
      johnk -- Monday, 15 February 2010, at 11:25 p.m.
  • Thoughts OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 February 2010, at 1:24 a.m.
    • A couple words about my choice of title.
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 February 2010, at 1:47 a.m.